Brexit Modellvergleich, englische Version

Brexit Modellvergleich, englische Version

Brexit Model Comparison

 

No DEAL


New Deal for Britain and the EU

The Norway model

The Switzerland model
The Turkey / Ukraine model

Singapore and Hong Kong approachIPPR's shared market


The Canada option

Hard BrexitNo BrexitSoft BrexitSoft BrexitSoft BrexitSoft BrexitSoft BrexitSoft Brexit
Britain stays in a reformed EUFTA
Probability of the scenarioVery highLow Medium ProbableProbableLowProbableMedium
What it means for Britain
TradeRegulated under WTO RulesFully integrated in EU single marketFully integrated in EU single marketIntegrated in EU single marketFree trade agreement for goods and services (Ukraine)Free trade agreementRegulated under WTO rules, unilateral free trade policyFree trade agreement
EWR/Single Market:No accessFull accessFull accessMore limited accessPartial accessUnilateral access"Shared market"Wide access
Free trade in services:NonePossiblePossiblePossibleNone (Turkey), possible (Ukraine)Unilaterally possiblePossibleOnly partially covered
Ireland:Closed borders, a new Ireland conflict could formBorder stays openBorder stays openBorders stay openClosed borders, a new Ireland conflict could formClosed borders, a new Ireland conflict could formBorder stay openClosed borders, a new ireland conflict could form
Scotland:Separatists will most likely be succesfulWill most likely remain in the UKWill very likely remain in the UKWill very likely remain in the UKSeparatists will most likely be succesfulSeparatists will probably not be succesfulSeparatists will probably not be succesfulSeparatists will probably not be succesful
EU-Residents:No right of residence or work in the UKLimited right of residence or work in the EURight of residence or work in the UKRight of residence or work in UK, but permission necessary (>3 months)No right of residence or work in the UKVarying limitations depending on the proposal chosen by the UKAnnual quota on the
number of available residence permits for other EEA citizens
No right of residence or work in the UK
UK-Expats:No right of residence or work in the EURight of residence or work in the EURight of residence or work in the EURight of residence or work in the EU, but permission necessary (>3 months)No right of residence or work in the EUVarying limitations depending on the proposal chosen by the UKNo right of residence or work in the EU
Energy-Market:No access to finance from EU energy-related programmes, but tariff-free energy exchangesAccess to finance from EU energy-related programmesNo access to finance from EU energy-related programmes, but tariff-free energy exchangesNo access to finance from EU energy-related programmes, but tariff-free energy exchangesNo access to finance from EU energy-related programmes, but tariff-free energy exchangesNo access to finance from EU energy-related programmes, but tariff-free energy exchangesNo access to finance from EU energy-related programmes, but tariff-free energy exchangesNo access to finance from EU energy-related programmes, but tariff-free energy exchanges
Passporting of financial institutions into the EU:NoYesYesNoNoNoUnclearVery hard to get
Part of Schengen:NoOn demandYesYesNoNoTo negotiateNo
PESCO (Defence):NoOn demandNoNoNoNoto negotiateNo
Customs Union:NoYesNoNoOnly for goods, not for services and financeNo, but UK doesnt charge tariffs on any imported or exported goodsYesMost tariffs are removed
Influence over EU policy and decisions:Very littleHighLittle - EEA members have the right to be consulted on laws and
regulations under the EEA agreement but there are limited channels for formal influence
Very littleVery littleLittleVery littleNo
Accept the Court of Justice of the EU:NoReorganization of responsibilities inside the EUNo, but accept EFTA Court of Justice insteadNoNoNoTo negotiatePartitially
Subject to EU-standards and -regulations:NoOnly regarding the internal single marketYesOnly regarding the internal single marketYes, regarding single market and oversight by EU institutionsNoRegarding the single marketFor exports to EU, yes
Banking Union:NoNo, reforms in the EU will avoid thisNoNoNoNoNoNo
Fiscal Compact:NoNo, reforms in the EU will avoid thisNoNoNoNoNoNo
Migration Policy:IndependentIndependent from the EU for all countries of the EUIndependentIndependentIndependentIndependentVarying compromisesIndependent
Ability to negotiate own trade deals with non-EU countries:YesNoRuled by EFTAYesYesYesYesYes
EU budget:No contribution to EU budgetContribution to EU budgetContribution to EU budget,
estimated to be £100 per capita
by the CBI
Contribution to EU budget,
estimated to be £53 per capita
No contribution to EU budgetNo contribution to EU budgetContribution to EU-budgetNo contribution to EU budget
Expected impact on British economy *:According to a recent study, Brexit will cost the UK economy 32 billion euros. [Study by the consulting firm Oliver Wyman and the law firm Clifford Chance]. In a hard Brexit scenario the UK would face a combined impact of £125bn | Influence on GDP -6,7% [This value indicates that GDP would be 6,7% lower at the end of Brexit's 10th year, as compared to a world without Brexit.] | Loss of trade with EU of 43% [Source HM Treasury]Economic growth by eliminating anti-economic aspects of the EUInfluence on GDP -2% [UK Government Report]Expected declines of GDP: 1.28% - 2,61% (33 to 67,3 Bil €) [Source: European Parliament]Expected declines of GDP: -6,2% (160 Bil €) [Source: European Parliament]Negative effects expectedNegative effects expectedExpected declines of GDP: -6,2% (160 Bil €) [Source: European Parliament]
Most affected industries:Oil and oil products, Financial
Services, other business services, road vehicles, transport, medicinal and pharmaceutical products
noneOil and oil products, Financial
Services, other business services, road vehicles, transport, medicinal and pharmaceutical products
Possible Memberships in transnational organisations:EFTA, CEFTA, UK-China-EFTA
Impact on the EU | analysis
Expected impact on EU economy: *A hard Brexit would cost the EU economy close to €112bn (£100bn) [according to an analysis from Oxford Economics] | Influence on GDP -6,7% [This value indicates that GDP would be 6,7% lower at the end of Brexit's 10th year, as compared to a world without Brexit.] | Expected declines in EU exports: 50% - 72%. Expected Declines in total trade (NiGEM): 20,7% - 29,2% [Source: Ebell and Warren, May 2016]Economic growth by eliminating anti-economic aspects of the EU.Expected declines in EU exports: 23% - 39%. Expected Declines in total trade (NiGEM): 10,5% - 16,5% [Source: Ebell and Warren, May 2016]Expected declines in EU exports: 31% - 42%. Expected Declines in total trade (NiGEM): 13,3% - 17,5% [Source: Ebell and Warren, May 2016] Expected declines of GDP: 0,12% - 0,29% (14.5 to 35.1 Bil €) [Source: European Parliament]Negative effects expectedNegative effects expectedNo negative effects expectedNegative effect expected
Most affected industries:Manufacturing businesses, especially automobile industryEveryone benefitsManufacturing businesses, especially automobile industry
Impact on Germany | analysis
Expected impact on German economy *:Estimated decline of exports to the UK -9%. About 750,000 jobs in Germany depend on trade with the UK. German companies have investments in the UK with a value of over EUR 140 billion, and maintain about 2,500 places of business in the UK with nearly 400,000 employees. There are 1,400 British companies in Germany, with about 240,000 employees. Before the Brexit vote, the UK was Germany's third-largest sales market. In 2017, it was fifth. [Source: IHK Business Survey] DIHK estimates that at least 30.000 German companies that export to UK would be affected by Brexit.

Estimated number of additional customs declarations: 14.6 Mio p.a.
Estimated cost for total number of customs declarations: 200 Mio. Euro p.a.
Estimated cost for total number of preferential proofs of origin: 300 Mio. Euro p.a.

40% of German investment in the UK is in the transportation and storage sector, accounting for 58% of total EU
investment in this sector in 2013 [Source: Global Counsel].
Economic growth by eliminating the anti-economic aspects of the EU.Negative effects expectedNegative effects expectedNegative effects expectedNegative effects expectedNo negative effects expectedNegative effect expected
Most affected industries:Manufacturing businesses, especially automobile industry (15% of the car exports are going to the UK)Everyone benefitsManufacturing businesses, especially automobile industry (15% of the car exports are going to the UK)
* There are contrarian analyzes and numbers to assess the impact of Brexit. The studies listed are for the sake of completeness and are only conditionally suitable to give reliable predictions.

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