Brexit Modellvergleich, englische Version ⋆ Hans-Olaf Henkel

Brexit Modellvergleich, englische Version

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Brexit Model Comparison

	No DEAL	New Deal for Britain and the EU	The Norway model	The Switzerland model	The Turkey / Ukraine model	Singapore and Hong Kong approach	IPPR's shared market	The Canada option
	Hard Brexit	No Brexit	Soft Brexit	Soft Brexit	Soft Brexit	Soft Brexit	Soft Brexit	Soft Brexit
		Britain stays in a reformed EU						FTA
Probability of the scenario	Very high	Low	Medium	Probable	Probable	Low	Probable	Medium
What it means for Britain
Trade	Regulated under WTO Rules	Fully integrated in EU single market	Fully integrated in EU single market	Integrated in EU single market	Free trade agreement for goods and services (Ukraine)	Free trade agreement	Regulated under WTO rules, unilateral free trade policy	Free trade agreement
EWR/Single Market:	No access	Full access	Full access	More limited access	Partial access	Unilateral access	"Shared market"	Wide access
Free trade in services:	None	Possible	Possible	Possible	None (Turkey), possible (Ukraine)	Unilaterally possible	Possible	Only partially covered
Ireland:	Closed borders, a new Ireland conflict could form	Border stays open	Border stays open	Borders stay open	Closed borders, a new Ireland conflict could form	Closed borders, a new Ireland conflict could form	Border stay open	Closed borders, a new ireland conflict could form
Scotland:	Separatists will most likely be succesful	Will most likely remain in the UK	Will very likely remain in the UK	Will very likely remain in the UK	Separatists will most likely be succesful	Separatists will probably not be succesful	Separatists will probably not be succesful	Separatists will probably not be succesful
EU-Residents:	No right of residence or work in the UK	Limited right of residence or work in the EU	Right of residence or work in the UK	Right of residence or work in UK, but permission necessary (>3 months)	No right of residence or work in the UK	Varying limitations depending on the proposal chosen by the UK	Annual quota on the number of available residence permits for other EEA citizens	No right of residence or work in the UK
UK-Expats:	No right of residence or work in the EU	Right of residence or work in the EU	Right of residence or work in the EU	Right of residence or work in the EU, but permission necessary (>3 months)	No right of residence or work in the EU	Varying limitations depending on the proposal chosen by the UK		No right of residence or work in the EU
Energy-Market:	No access to finance from EU energy-related programmes, but tariff-free energy exchanges	Access to finance from EU energy-related programmes	No access to finance from EU energy-related programmes, but tariff-free energy exchanges	No access to finance from EU energy-related programmes, but tariff-free energy exchanges	No access to finance from EU energy-related programmes, but tariff-free energy exchanges	No access to finance from EU energy-related programmes, but tariff-free energy exchanges	No access to finance from EU energy-related programmes, but tariff-free energy exchanges	No access to finance from EU energy-related programmes, but tariff-free energy exchanges
Passporting of financial institutions into the EU:	No	Yes	Yes	No	No	No	Unclear	Very hard to get
Part of Schengen:	No	On demand	Yes	Yes	No	No	To negotiate	No
PESCO (Defence):	No	On demand	No	No	No	No	to negotiate	No
Customs Union:	No	Yes	No	No	Only for goods, not for services and finance	No, but UK doesnt charge tariffs on any imported or exported goods	Yes	Most tariffs are removed
Influence over EU policy and decisions:	Very little	High	Little - EEA members have the right to be consulted on laws and regulations under the EEA agreement but there are limited channels for formal influence	Very little	Very little	Little	Very little	No
Accept the Court of Justice of the EU:	No	Reorganization of responsibilities inside the EU	No, but accept EFTA Court of Justice instead	No	No	No	To negotiate	Partitially
Subject to EU-standards and -regulations:	No	Only regarding the internal single market	Yes	Only regarding the internal single market	Yes, regarding single market and oversight by EU institutions	No	Regarding the single market	For exports to EU, yes
Banking Union:	No	No, reforms in the EU will avoid this	No	No	No	No	No	No
Fiscal Compact:	No	No, reforms in the EU will avoid this	No	No	No	No	No	No
Migration Policy:	Independent	Independent from the EU for all countries of the EU	Independent	Independent	Independent	Independent	Varying compromises	Independent
Ability to negotiate own trade deals with non-EU countries:	Yes	No	Ruled by EFTA	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
EU budget:	No contribution to EU budget	Contribution to EU budget	Contribution to EU budget, estimated to be £100 per capita by the CBI	Contribution to EU budget, estimated to be £53 per capita	No contribution to EU budget	No contribution to EU budget	Contribution to EU-budget	No contribution to EU budget
Expected impact on British economy *:	According to a recent study, Brexit will cost the UK economy 32 billion euros. [Study by the consulting firm Oliver Wyman and the law firm Clifford Chance]. In a hard Brexit scenario the UK would face a combined impact of £125bn \| Influence on GDP -6,7% [This value indicates that GDP would be 6,7% lower at the end of Brexit's 10th year, as compared to a world without Brexit.] \| Loss of trade with EU of 43% [Source HM Treasury]	Economic growth by eliminating anti-economic aspects of the EU	Influence on GDP -2% [UK Government Report]	Expected declines of GDP: 1.28% - 2,61% (33 to 67,3 Bil €) [Source: European Parliament]	Expected declines of GDP: -6,2% (160 Bil €) [Source: European Parliament]	Negative effects expected	Negative effects expected	Expected declines of GDP: -6,2% (160 Bil €) [Source: European Parliament]
Most affected industries:	Oil and oil products, Financial Services, other business services, road vehicles, transport, medicinal and pharmaceutical products	none	Oil and oil products, Financial Services, other business services, road vehicles, transport, medicinal and pharmaceutical products
Possible Memberships in transnational organisations:	EFTA, CEFTA, UK-China	-		EFTA


Impact on the EU \| analysis
Expected impact on EU economy: *	A hard Brexit would cost the EU economy close to €112bn (£100bn) [according to an analysis from Oxford Economics] \| Influence on GDP -6,7% [This value indicates that GDP would be 6,7% lower at the end of Brexit's 10th year, as compared to a world without Brexit.] \| Expected declines in EU exports: 50% - 72%. Expected Declines in total trade (NiGEM): 20,7% - 29,2% [Source: Ebell and Warren, May 2016]	Economic growth by eliminating anti-economic aspects of the EU.	Expected declines in EU exports: 23% - 39%. Expected Declines in total trade (NiGEM): 10,5% - 16,5% [Source: Ebell and Warren, May 2016]	Expected declines in EU exports: 31% - 42%. Expected Declines in total trade (NiGEM): 13,3% - 17,5% [Source: Ebell and Warren, May 2016] Expected declines of GDP: 0,12% - 0,29% (14.5 to 35.1 Bil €) [Source: European Parliament]	Negative effects expected	Negative effects expected	No negative effects expected	Negative effect expected
Most affected industries:	Manufacturing businesses, especially automobile industry	Everyone benefits	Manufacturing businesses, especially automobile industry


Impact on Germany \| analysis
Expected impact on German economy *:	Estimated decline of exports to the UK -9%. About 750,000 jobs in Germany depend on trade with the UK. German companies have investments in the UK with a value of over EUR 140 billion, and maintain about 2,500 places of business in the UK with nearly 400,000 employees. There are 1,400 British companies in Germany, with about 240,000 employees. Before the Brexit vote, the UK was Germany's third-largest sales market. In 2017, it was fifth. [Source: IHK Business Survey] DIHK estimates that at least 30.000 German companies that export to UK would be affected by Brexit. Estimated number of additional customs declarations: 14.6 Mio p.a. Estimated cost for total number of customs declarations: 200 Mio. Euro p.a. Estimated cost for total number of preferential proofs of origin: 300 Mio. Euro p.a. 40% of German investment in the UK is in the transportation and storage sector, accounting for 58% of total EU investment in this sector in 2013 [Source: Global Counsel].	Economic growth by eliminating the anti-economic aspects of the EU.	Negative effects expected	Negative effects expected	Negative effects expected	Negative effects expected	No negative effects expected	Negative effect expected
Most affected industries:	Manufacturing businesses, especially automobile industry (15% of the car exports are going to the UK)	Everyone benefits	Manufacturing businesses, especially automobile industry (15% of the car exports are going to the UK)


* There are contrarian analyzes and numbers to assess the impact of Brexit. The studies listed are for the sake of completeness and are only conditionally suitable to give reliable predictions.